Akiyama brings an interesting story with him to the UFC because of his heritage, Eastern appeal, and talent. Akiyama is immensely popular in Japan and South Korea, but there is a strong dichotomy between the two. He is beloved in South Korea while seen as the villain in Japan. Not necessarily national pride, but the manner in which Asian countries follow their national celebrities is unmatched, even by the United States. This is the main reason for the signing of Akiyama. He provides a potential key to the Eastern world and if he can make a run in the UFC then Akiyama may be a beachhead for further UFC global expansion.
Two controversies surround his career so far. The first happened in '06 when he went through his own personal "grease gate". His win was eventually ruled a No Contest because of a substance that made him slippery. Apparently this is one of the potential problems when you are "The Sexyama." According to Akiyama he had not purposely applied an illegal substance, but rather an over the counter moisturizer for his dry skin before the fight. He formally apologized and took the blame for his mistake. The match was ruled a NC, but how can you blame a man who wants to look like this.
The second controversy has led to what some people believe has changed Akiyama as a fighter. During a 2007 match Akiyama was kicked in the head while he was still on the ground (an illegal move) and was knocked out. He appealed the fight and the outcome was changed to a NC, but rumors swirled that he is not the same fighter as he was before. It will be interesting to see which Akiyama comes out in his fight against Belcher. The UFC is certainly rooting for Akiyama to put together some victories and move him up the Middleweight ladder. That is why I find it surprising they placed him against a sound opponent in Alan Belcher.
Alan Belcher is a tough man to figure out, but there is one thing for sure: he is country. Belcher is the fighting pride of Mississippi where he lives and trains. Any doubts of his county are thrown off by the giant tattoo of Johnny Cash on his arm. I remember watching the Dennis Kang fight thinking that must be a new tattoo because the skin is still bruised, but no, the tattoo is just enormous and horrible (sorry dude, the quality ain't there).
Oh yeah, he also fights for a living. After splitting his first 4 professional fights he won his next 7 earning a spot in the UFC. Belcher has been a bit unpredictable during his UFC career. He has two disappointing losses to Jason Day and Kendall Grove (not too bad a loss), but has beaten top level talent in Jorge Santiago and Dennis Kang. Belcher has won his last two fights and four of his last five heading into Saturday.
Conventional Analysis: Despite Akiyama's main purpose of increasing popularity overseas there is serious talent within him. He is a decorated judoka winning the Gold medal at the 2002 Asian Games. Besides his obvious takedown and ground skills he also displays some impressive striking and strength (which has been a problem for many Asian imports in the UFC). Five of his 12 wins are by way of KO and 7 wins are via submission.
Belcher is a little more one dimensional. His strength lies in his striking ability. Despite tapping Kang out Belcher was worked on the mat for the majority of the first round. Belcher struggled against Kang's takedowns and spent a lot of the round on his back or defending submission attempts. His best shot is keeping the fight on his feet and trying to strike with Akiyama.
Conventional wisdom has Akiyama as the favorite and that is why his odds are at -340. He has a major advantage on the ground and an advantage on the feet. Belcher is choosing between the lesser of two evils.
WKR Analysis: I do believe that Akiyama should be the favorite and probably will win this fight, but I think this will be closer than many expect. Belcher did struggle, until his submission, against Kang on the ground, but he did enough. His grappling is not great, but he has decent defensive grappling. He was able to get hooks from bottom position, prevent submissions, and get back to his feet. If he is able to do this against Akiyama he can turn it into striking battle. Akiyama is probably better on his feet, but not by a large extent and we all know anything can happen in MMA. I think Belcher is a good bet with his odds and has a decent shot of pulling off the upset.
In the end though I do think Akiyama will win. Despite Belcher showing good defense grappling, his takedown defense has been very suspect and he is going up against a Judoka with obvious great takedowns. Even if Belcher can bring the fight back up Akiyama will send it back down. With Judoka takedowns Akiyama will not leave himself up for the Guillotine Choke and Belcher will either get finished by strikes or submission on the ground. I do expect him to weather the storm for at least a round or even two though.
Fun Fact: Alan Belcher's real name is John Alan Belcher.
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